Fantasy Free Agent Forecast

We have that Super Bowl thing behind us. The fair weather fantasy player will get on with their lives. For the Dynasty/Keeper owner a new part of the season begins just as it does in the NFL. Today we are going to take a look at some of the Free Agents on the market and some of the chain reactions in fantasy football that could happen with their departure or arrival.

A homer perspective is encouraged and valued so if you have something to say, please drop it in the comment box!

QB:

Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns, RFA

Phil Savage has said that the Browns intend to keep both Anderson and Brady Quinn. Good news for the owners that picked Anderson up cheap this last season. Bad news for those using a roster spot on Brady Quinn. Hopefully if you are a Quinn owner your league uses some sort of Taxi Squad to hoard players for a while.

Depending on your leagues scoring, Anderson was likely one of the top scoring players, at the least toward the top of the QB list. How does this effect other players? Well, you either have a guy in Anderson who has proven himself throwing to guys like Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, or you have possible growing pains of Brady Quinn bringing those guys down.

Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears UFA

Right now all signs point to Grossman returning to the Bears. This can be good or bad depending on the week he is having IF he is the starter. Rumors have the Bears going after a QB in the draft or free agency. I’m going to lean toward Grossman being the starter as bad for your other Bears players. They are going to be held in a bit of limbo here as his consistency issues are not something we fantasy owners can count on either.

RB:

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys, RFA

Barber should be back in Dallas in 2008. He finally got his start in the playoffs. This could have been a message for the Cowboys intentions. Like many RB’s that are not a full time guy, it’s questioned that Barber can be the full time guy. There are rumors of him being traded off to Miami.

Regardless of where he is you can look for him to still share time and still get a bulk of the short yardage and redzone work. If he returns to Dallas he will share time with Julius Jones or another young back brought in via the draft, but his percentage of carries will likely increase. If he is in Miami, they have a couple of RB’s on the roster that are sure to demand playing time unless they are moved by the Fins. Keep in mind that Ronnie Brown was kicking fantasy football ass when he went down with an injury.

Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys, UFA

Much depends on the Marion Barber issue above for Jones. He was already demoted on fantasy rosters last season after being out done by Barber in 2006. Barbers increased workload in 2007 made Jones that much more unlikely to be starting for any serious fantasy team outside of bye week filler and an emergency replacement. A new team hungry for a new RB might be just the thing that fantasy Julius Jones needs. Stay or go, he will likely share time again, making him once again a questionable starter in fantasy circles. Let’s see what happens with this one.

Michael Turner, San Diego Chargers, UFA

The most sought after RB free agent in the NFL and Fantasy Dynasty leagues last season. Realistically still a question mark considering his playing time. Sure, he has done well in mop up duty and spot relief of that Tomlinson guy. He is being linked to any team that would like a RB. If he is already on your roster, you can wait it out as you have had him taking up a roster spot until now. If he is a free agent in your Dynasty/ Keeper your going to see a high price tag as long as he is mentioned in FA circles. Someone is going to over spend, you got the cash? If your league resolves Free Agency after he is signed somewhere consider yourself lucky. There will be a lot of leagues rolling the dice on this one. Could be a jackpot, could be another year behind Tomlinson taking up a roster spot. If someone pays to bring him onto their NFL team you can be sure he will get every chance to be the guy.

WR:

Randy Moss, New England Patriots, UFA

There is not another free agent that will have more impact than Randy Moss on fantasy football. He says he wants to return to the Pats. Whether or not he does will have a huge impact on fantasy drafts and Dynasty/ Keeper leagues. Come on, you don’t think Tom Brady is the number one Fantasy QB to draft in 2008 without this guy, do you? Wes Welker is going to go high because of him (not that he shouldn’t go higher than last year), Ben Watson and Laurence Maroney will go lower based on his performance this last year. If Moss leaves, depending where he lands, you can see a similar outcome for players in those same roles on the team he joins. If he does leave you can take advantage in trade circles if you own other Patriots, or hype up the players on the new team (”You have to want this guy, his production is going to skyrocket…”).

If the Patriots and Randy Moss determine that he should remain with the team you can expect more of the same. Maybe not record setting numbers but Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne consistent numbers. Wes Welker will be the most sought slot WR in fantasy football (likely will be anyway), and owners may be looking to dump Maroney or moving him to a RB2 or bench role.

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears, UFA

This is an interesting situation to watch. We know he has the tools, but will the Bears have the tools at QB to make him a consistent fantasy WR? The Raiders have shown interest…interesting depending on how JaMarcus Russell works out. The best thing that can happen to Berrian and his current fantasy owners is that he ends up on a team with an established QB in need of a go to guy. If he leaves what does it do to the Bears? Nothing if the QB situation stays the same in Chicago. It gives other Bears WR’s and Greg Olsen a chance to step up but I’m not starting them if Rex Grossman is under center.

OL:

Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh Steelers, UFA

I know you don’t own him or are looking to aquire him in fantasy football (if your playing in a league that uses O-Line, tell me about it!) but his staying or departure can have an impact on the Steelers players. I know, the Steelers always seem to bounce back when a FA leaves. But this isn’t the old Steelers anymore so we don’t know how they will respond. Watch this and take it into consideration with your Steelers players or players your looking to get. If he leaves and you own the RB, QB for the team he joins, you may have just got a bonus!

tag: NFL, Fantasy Football, Sports, Football, Football Jabber, Dynasty, Keeper, Free Agent, Alan Faneca, Bernard Berrian, Randy Moss, Michael Turner, Julius Jones, Marion Barber, Rex Grossman, Derek Anderson

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