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Who’s the Top Fantasy Dynasty QB in 2008?
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Believe it or not this is a great time of year for some fantasy football owners. Those that play in Dynasty and Keeper leagues are considering making moves for the 2008 season. This is a time of year that many new Dynasty leagues begin to pop up as they do not have to wait since most of them run year round. It’s common practice to be drafting vet’s while then waiting for the rookies to be placed on teams before a rookie draft. Today we are going to look at who the top Dynasty QB’s are. In recent years there has been no question to this. After a QB highlighted season though the answer is not as clear.
Browsing various fantasy football sites that have their early Dynasty and Keeper rankings up there are three names that are at the top of the list. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning,and Tony Romo. Tony is going to hinder our averages since he has only been news for two years and only played in 10 games in 2006 but let’s have a look at the per game averages anyway. We will look at those things that you get scored on in most leagues at the QB position.
Please hit the poll over there—-> in the sidebar as who you think the top Dynasty QB is!
TD’s Per Game 06/07
Tom Brady: 2.31
Tony Romo: 2.12
Peyton Manning: 1.94
Interestingly enough, Tom Brady’s inflated season in 2007 did not provide a lot of separation. You can bet that there is a direct correlation between Randy Moss being in a New England Patriots jersey. The previous three seasons he averaged 26 TD’s per season, which he almost doubled with Moss in town last year. Good news for Brady and his owners is that he will have Moss again this season.
Not far behind Brady is Tony Romo. Yes you can say, “Well he has Terrell Owens…” Owens has caught 28 of Romo’s 55 TD’s over the last two seasons. Myself there is reason to believe that if Moss and Owens were taken out of the equation that Romo would be putting up more TD’s. the Cowboys seem interested with getting a solid #2 WR to pair with Owens which could turn scary.
Strange to find Peyton at the bottom of this list. This is due to taking only two years because of Romo’s short stint as a starting QB. We all know Manning is a consistent TD’s machine. What sets him apart from the others is that Manning’s success is not hinged on a particular WR. Even without Marvin Harrison in 2007, Manning was able to match his 31 TD’s from 2006. We all remember that he is not far removed from a 49 TD season as well.
Yards Per Game 06/07
Tony Romo: 273.62
Peyton Manning: 264.66
Tom Brady: 260.47
Romo gets to be top dog in one of these categories. In 2007 his Yards per game jumped from 181.4 in 2006 to 263.2. Kinda makes you wonder what we will see in 2008, huh?
As he is with TD’s, Peyton Manning is a consistent yards machine. He has only been under 4000 yards once since his rookie season and has NEVER been under 3700 yards.
Another inflated stat courtesy of Randy Moss. 2007 was the second season in Brady’s career over 4000 yards and he damned near hit 5000.
INT’s Per Game 06/07
Tom Brady: 0.63
Peyton Manning: 0.72
Tony Romo: 1.23
Tom Brady’s career low 8 INT’s in 2007 is one of these stats that we can’t attribute to Moss. This was all Brady. It was his second highest career total for a season in attempts as well. Brady seems to be in a zone.
Peyton had his highest INT total since 2002 last year. Still, if your league takes away 2 points per INT he still only had 28 points taken from you over the course of the season.
Although Romo’s INT’s went up from 2006 to 2007 we have to keep in mind he played six more games and had 183 more pass attempts. His % or INT’s per attempt actually went down. Still, he is the guy out of the three that appears to have the best chance to get some points taken away if your league punishes your QB for picks.
So what have we learned here today? It appears that there is not that big of a difference between these QB’s in your Dynasty draft regardless of scoring system, at least over the past two seasons. We can look for Romo to continue to improve. We can look for Brady to have another season with Randy Moss assisted stats. We can also look for Peyton Manning to provide consistent numbers despite who he is throwing to. Don’t feel like you have to be the first one to jump at a QB in your Dynasty or Keeper draft this year.
tag: NFL, Fantasy Football, Draft, Fantasy Tips, Dynasty, Keeper, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, Footballjabber.com, football
Lee @ March 21, 2008
Great breakdown. Definitely very telling for next year’s fantasy drafts. Romo was my pick before seeing the stats, but the stats lock it up for me. Plus, he probably won’t go in the first round like Manning and Brady will.
For arguments sake I may add a couple other QB’s just to see how it compares.
But yes Jacob, you could go another position first and likely come back and grab Romo after the first round unless you know that there is someone very high on him.
This is good analysis Lee, I think you’re on to something here but one factor you didn’t include was the changing dynamics of the NFL. Offenses shift from year to year, in ‘05 & ‘06, the top fantasy producer (particularly in leagues that reward rushing/receiving TD’s more than passing ones) were Shaun Alexander & LT respectively. Last year there was an explosion in passing scores but we could just as easily see a return to a RB (or backs) dominating the fantasy ranks in ‘08. Names I would put forth are Stephen Jackson (particularly if the Rams select LT Ryan Long in the draft), Adrian Peterson (if he can stay healthy and the Vikings can get defenses to respect the pass), Marion Barber and maybe Maurice Jones-Drew (if Fred Taylor gets hurt, which is inevitable at 32 years old, MJD would be a 20+ TD scorer).
Thanks for the comment John. I see your point about the RB’s but this was taking a look at a few QB’s is all, not overall dynasty players. RB’s are for another day.
Personally, I look for the RBBC problem for fantasy owners to get even worse with all of the RB talent in the draft this year.
Good analysis of their numbers for the previous years, but Dynasty rankings should heavily take into account projections of the upcoming seasons.
Brady in my opinion would be #1 without a doubt. At age 30, you can argue he has at least 5 more years of solid production, his top WR is 31 year old Randy Moss plus he has a reception machine with Welker, and a offensive scheme that can plug any receiver in and make effective. Chad Jackson should finally be healhty and Gaffney is returning. Alot of upside here for a long time.
Romo isn’t much younger than Brady at age 28, has an older premier WR in Terrell Owens at age 35 and an all-pro TE in Jason Witten. After that, Sam Hurd and Patrick Crayton aren’t scaring anyone and Terry Glenn is just about done. Romo’s value is directly linked to TO and how much longer he can play at a high level.
Peyton Manning is 33 and will need Anthony Gonzalez to take a major step forward to make up for a wall-hitting Marvin Harrison. He still has Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Addai out of the backfield, which still makes him a top 3 at the position, but his age hurts his value in dynasty.
Interestingly, I have Carson Palmer ranked second ahead of Romo but behind Brady in a dynasty format and he was ommitted from your article.
This was brought on after my viewing of several websites and noting that they were the three at the top of the lists. I didn’t see these rankings of yours you speak of TD ;)None of the rankings I looked at had Palmer in the top three. With that said I have considered doing another rundown of three more QB’s. If this wasn’t something I came up with right as I was seeing the rankings and actually sat down and did something with it there would have been numbers crunched for 10.
Touche’ Lee. Yes, I’ll have to compose my own rankings.
I don’t want to link to a competitors site, but a highly respected fantasy website I visit (other than the Jabber of course, which is #1), believe it or not has Romo at 5, Palmer at 4 and Ben Roethlisberger at 3 with Peyton and Brady rounding out the top 5. Brees was 6.
Since I have wrote it I have come across others where Romo doesn’t fair as well. I too have seen Big Ben ranked up at #3, which is a shock.
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