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THE NUMBERS CRUNCH: Why I’m Not Drafting LT # 1 This Year
June 6, 2008 by TD Hill
We all love LT. For seven years, he’s averaged nearly 2,000 total yards and over 18 TD’s a year on average of 338 carries. It’s jaw dropping when you look at the numbers. But let’s look a little deeper and compare him to the only RB who put out similar production over the same amount years and dominated our fantasy hearts in his prime: Marshall Faulk.
FACT: Marshall Faulk at the age of 27 sets the TD in a season record (at the time) with 26
FACT: LT at the age of 27 shatters the TD in a season record
FACT: At the time of the accomplishment, Faulk recorded his 2155th carry of his career
FACT: At the time of the accomplishment, LT recorded his 2050th carry of his career
FACT: The season after, Faulk enjoyed another good season of over 2,100 total yards from scrimmage while scoring 21 TD’s
FACT: The season after (last year) LT enjoyed another good season of almost 2,000 total yards from scrimmage while scoring 18 TD’s
FACT: With injuries mounting, Faulk plays 10 games the following season and is never the same player again
FACT: With injuries mounting, LT plays ? games in 2008 and ????
FACT: After his 2,367th carry of this career, Marshall Faulk never rushes for 1,000 yards again
FACT: LT starts this season with his 2,366th carry
The similarities are eerie to say the least. I don’t think LT is going to fall of the ledge and not do anything this year, hell, even in 10 games in 2002 Faulk almost gained 1,000 yards before breaking down, but you might want to think long and hard before you pick him. Are you willing to gamble that LT, at the age of 29, will continue his dominance, or will you bet that Adrian Peterson takes the next step and takes the crown of FANTASY KING?
FACT: LT recorded 1603 total yards and 10 TD’s his rookie season
FACT: Adrian Peterson recorded 1609 total yards and 12 TD’s his rookie season
FACT: LT dominated the fantasy world for the next 6 seasons until now
FACT: AD will dominate the fantasy world. A NEW KING IS BORN!
For further reading, enjoy this article I wrote advising that NOW is the time to trade LT in your Dynasty League.
*TD Hill is a part-timer here who writes only because of the fact we are holding his cat hostage. To catch more of his stuff check out The Endzone View
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Good stuff TD. This has even more impact in start up Dynasty leagues.
In dynasty or keeper leagues, I definitely would try to deal him. In a redraft league, I could make arguments for both Steven Jackson and Peterson being drafted over him. Both are younger and have less wear on them, but unfortunately, all of the big 3 have some injury concerns.