Football Jabber

Last week I decided to test some of the Old School Fantasy Football Drafting Theories. I ran 24 mock drafts to look for differences in the Two Running Backs in the first two rounds theory opposed to the “Triplets” where you take a QB/RB/WR in the first three rounds (order determined by best available at the three positions per round).  There was a draft performed from each draft position in a 12 team league.  You can view the results HERE. You should really go read that first and then come back and join us.

While doing the drafts I had an unsettling feeling that I was missing out on some fantasy points because I had to reach for certain players/positions to meet the theory being tested.  I decided to do an update this week, doing 12 more drafts (one per draft position).  In these mock drafts the goal was to put together the best group of starters possible without sticking to one of the above mentioned draft theories.  It was time to throw the “I have to have another RB NOW” thought process out the window.

The Mocks were performed using Football Guys Draft Dominator software.  The same settings were used as the prior mocks, as follows…

Starters:
1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 DT

Scoring:
Passing: 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 20 yards, -2 per INT
Rushing/Receiving: 6 pts per TD, 1 point per 10 yards, -2 per fumble

The computer teams used varying ADP rankings from five different sources to ensure they were not going by the same list, you know, more like a real draft.

The value at each position is ranked by the projected points over the course of the season.  There is full roster, starters, and the starting RB’s in the resulting draft.  In parenthesis after the players is the Average Draft Position at Fantasy Football Calculator.

DISCLAIMER: This is by no means a science.  Yes, there are holes all over it, but numbers are fun!  The projected points are taken from the draft software.  Players picked were taken according to best available for the theory according to the projected points.

I will post the results of the projected points from the previous test as well as the updated projected points in tables at the end of the article for comparison.

Draft position #1

Summary: In the first round we went with LT (ADP-1.01).  The first four rounds actually came out the same as the Triplets in the previous article. Fitz (ADP-2.08) and Drew Brees (3.09) followed LT.   LenDale White was the second RB and Jason Witten joined the team at TE.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2326
Starters 1806
RB Value: 471

Draft position #2

Summary: This one we get to stray from the theories tested last week.  The second draft position saw us take Adrian Peterson (ADP-1.02) with the second pick.  The 2nd and 3rd round go to WR with Larry Fitzgerald at 2.11 (ADP-2.08) and Andre Johnson (ADP-2.07) at 3.1, pretty good value that would have been passed up in the other theories.  This was much better than having to reach for a Jamal Lewis as a second RB right away.  Edge James was brought in as the second RB with Matt Hassellbeck and Kellen Winslow also on the squad.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2301
Starters 1771
RB Value: 429

Draft position #3

Summary: With the computer taking Brain Westbrook at the second pick I’m able to pull AP again in the first round.  In fact, all of the first six rounds go the same as position#2.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2282
Starters 1771
RB Value: 429

Draft position #4

Summary:  Again the ADP lists used by the computer picks for 2&3 don’t care as much for AP (Westbrook and Steven Jackson go) leaving him to me at #4.  I don’t look for this to happen too often with the hype around AP.  In the second round Fitz is gone and the pick is Tony Romo (ADP-2.10).  Andre Johnson is still around in the 3rd and Edge/Winslow in the next two rounds.  Overall roster value is higher here but the starters take a dip.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2315
Starters 1762
RB Value: 429

Draft position #5

Summary:  The draft begins to look much different as AP is finally gone.  Joseph Addai(ADP-1.05) is the first rounder.  Tony Romo is there again in the 2nd.  Chad Johnson(ADP-3.05) makes his first appearance.  Len Dale White is the 2nd RB.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2238
Starters 1684
RB Value: 402

Draft position #6

Summary: The starter points take a jump here that we have not seen since the first pick with LT.  Reason?  Tom Brady(ADP-1.06).  Reggie Wayne(2.01) adds value in the 2nd round and Chad Johnson is there again in the third.  I had to wait until the 4th round for my first RB, hurting that position.  Regardless, there is a significant jump having Brady and the two WR’s.  Edge James and LenDale White are the RB’s.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2385
Starters 1802
RB Value: 338

Draft position #7

Summary: All the players listed in pick #6 were available again here.  Later in the draft value drops with some other players.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2374
Starters 1798
RB Value: 338

Draft position #8

Summary: Now we shake things up again and go WR in the first round with Randy Moss(ADP-1.08).  Tony Romo comes in the second round.  We have a couple new faces with Ronnie Brown(ADP-3.07) in the 3rd and Anquan Boldin(ADP-4.01) in the 4th.  LenDale White is still hanging out later for the 2nd RB.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2219
Starters 1701
RB Value: 347

Draft position #9

Summary: This one runs the same as pick #8 except that Boldin is gone and Edge James becomes the 4th rounder.  Dwayne Bowe is the 2nd WR.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2227
Starters 1668
RB Value: 355

Draft position #10

Summary: This time we take the a QB again in the first round with Peyton Manning (ADP-2.02).  A little reach but he appeared the best available on the board.  Terrell Owens(ADP-1.12) shows up in the 2nd with Ronnie Brown and Anquan Boldin joining the group.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2255
Starters 1679
RB Value: 326

Draft position #11

Summary:  Manning goes first here again and Willis McGahee(ADP-2.06) in the 2nd.  Torry Holt(ADP-3.08) is there for the 3rd round with Edge as the 2nd RB, Roddy White as the 2nd WR.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2254
Starters 1662
RB Value: 374

Draft position #12

Summary:  Manning again…Larry Johnson(ADP-2.03) in the second.  Torry Holt and Edge James also join the squad.

Projected Points:
Value Overall 2232
Starters 1644
RB Value: 388

Now what do you say we give this a little more visual and compare the results from last weeks drafts to these.

Projected Points for Entire Roster:

Projected Points for Starters:

Projected Points for Your 2 starting RB’s

Observations:

• As expected, your going to field your best RB tandem using the 2 RB theory.
• Tony Romo can mean money at the #5 position if you get a strong RB in the first.  Triplets theory by far outscores the others in that position for starter points.  Joe Addai and Chad Johnson joined him there.
• Taking Tom Brady with Trips at position #6 and then waiting until round 3 for RB only put Trips three points ahead of 2RB in starter points.  Going Brady and then Wayne, Chad Johnson in the best available theory made a huge jump in starters.  Moral of the story?  HAVING to take a RB in there can hurt your team overall on Sunday.  Looks like they can wait until the 4th.
• If you feel like you have to go RB in the first two rounds and don’t have the #1 pick, the #9 hole seemed to work for overall roster.  Came in third for starters though.

Conclusion:

We have had the 2 RB theory jammed in our heads for years.  It causes many owners to panic on draft day and reach for a player that simply isn’t going to score as many points.  In some cases above it was shown that waiting all the way to the 4th round to take a RB can be effective if you get the right players in the first three rounds.  I know, this would still be very hard to do without panic.  It appears that if your not in the very top of the first round, 2 RB is not always the way to go.  The outright favorite here for putting up points on Sunday was taking the best fantasy player on the board 5/6th of the time.

Another goal in this was to see what strategies appeared to favor each draft position.  Hope this has helped, if not in your drafting this year, in killing some time crunching some fantasy numbers waiting for the season.